Following the staggering by-election defeats for the Tory party yesterday, Labour analysts are extrapolating the results to predict the outcome of next year’s election. Not only do they think that they will win the UK election, but will win a quarter of France as well.
In the Mid-Bedfordshire and Tamworth by-elections yesterday the two formerly safe Tory constituencies. In the Mid-Bedfordshire election the previous Tory majority of 24,664 was overturned by Labour into a 1,192 majority. A massive swing of 25,856 gave Alistair Strathern the seat.
In Tamworth there was a similar swing from over 19,000 votes for the Tories to a 1,316 for Labour’s Sarah Edwards.
Tory analysts have attempted to blame the weather, which is presumably worse over Tory voters than it is over voters for other candidates. Although if you know that you are going to be defeated then why bother to vote? The result is the same.
Of course it could come down to factors such as having nasty, unpleasant louts such as Andrew Cooper as candidates, or because the previous Tory incumbent was Nadine Dorries who never did anything and the party didn’t act.
Meanwhile Labour analysts have been looking through the results and extrapolating wildly like a Tory Chancellor on Red Bull. Shadow Business and Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds declared that an unfortunate consequence of the voting system was that it these votes were extrapolated to the general election next year, not only would Labour win all the seats, but would gain a quarter of French constituencies as well.
Shadow minister Stephanie Peacock punched the air and yelled “France, here we come!”.
Sky News analysts were less convinced with the extrapolation.